If you have sufficient historical details then you can evaluate which of the horses for the day may have a possible advantage (or for that matter, a disadvantage) under these conditions. To assist you in your selection process for today, we are providing Form Lines for those entries who have Won or Placed in the past when off-track conditions were in play.

Check out this PDF for Off-track Form for horses. CLICK HERE.

With just 9 races to go in the current season, many of you may choose to use the off-season (July and August) to take a look back on the 2009/10 season of racing. The Hong Kong Racing Journal will have it’s 2009/10 historical data ready by July 15th and has a number of options for analyzing that data. If you are seeking a robust Handicapping or Racing Analysis System to assist with your handicapping then the HKRJ can help you too. For the majority of players, having a system with key racing analysis factors, screens and data is “not” out-of-reach and many systems are more straight-forward than one might imagine, using industry standards such as Excel©.

Furthermore, Racing Applications can either work with a Full Database of Information, or, can deal with only the information required for “today’s” racing.

Contact me, Earl Klein ( eklein@horseracing.com.hk ), Racing Editor for the Hong Kong Racing Journal and Hong Kong Racing Form, for Historical Racing Data (including this season) or for more information on just how easy it is to have your own Racing Application.

If you have sufficient historical details then you can evaluate which of the horses for the day may have a possible advantage (or for that matter, a disadvantage) under these conditions. To assist you in your selection process for tonight, we are providing Form Lines for those entries who have Won or Placed in the past when off-track conditions were in play.

Check out this PDF for Off-track Form for horses. CLICK HERE.

If you have sufficient historical details then you can evaluate which of the horses for the day may have a possible advantage (or for that matter, a disadvantage) under these conditions. To assist you in your selection process for tonight, we are providing Form Lines for those entries who have Won or Placed in the past when off-track conditions were in play.

Check out this PDF for Off-track Form for horses. CLICK HERE.

The simple answer to this question is “Yes” – from a strictly statistical perspective. In Hong Kong the average chance of winning is approximately 8%. But the rate of winning for horses who won their last race doubles to 16%. However, if you bet all of those horses who had won their last race, then your result would be a flat-bet loss. So, you need to add this factor into the mix of your handicapping process and be more selective in order to have a much stronger chance for a positive return. Looking at those horses who won their last race and assessing those horses with other positive variables, the following charges have stronger chances of winning today (i.e. their next race). So you see that on a first pass, the list narrows to 5 horses from 10).

Race #1 H#4 > ADMIRATION
Race #5 H#7 > ANTIPASTO
Race #7 H#8 > HIGH AIM
Race #8 H#1 > VIVA PATACA
Race #9 H#1 > PERFECT SPRINT

Obviously other factors will contribute to your assessment, but this should get you started!

Good luck today!

It is obviously more difficult to choose the winner of 2 races in-a-row, but if you are successful the returns can be significant. The big advantage when comparing the Double wager to a normal 2-race parlay is in the reduced “take” by the track. There is a take by the track for each race of the parlay, while the take on a Double wager is done just once. Another factor to consider is the “pool” ~ because the Double is a separate pool, the payoffs are often greater than they would have been with a straight parlay. In Hong Kong another plus for choosing the Double wager is that there is a “Consolation” pay-off which is occasionally larger than the primary payment (this depends on the odds of the horses involved). The Double Consolation pays out when you have the Winner in the 1st Leg and the 2nd-place finisher in the 2nd Leg.

I recommend that if you are going to play the Double that you use a “Partial Wheel”. Consider using one or two selections in the 1st leg and “wheeling-them” to as many as 4 selections in the 2nd Leg. With this method of betting you increase your chances of getting both the Primary and Consolation payoffs.

Additional “best type of bets” should include two others – the Treble and Six-Up – which can be considered for similar reasons as the Double ~ namely all of these bets benefit from reduced “Takes” and possible “Consolation” payouts.

Good luck in your quest for the “best” racing bet that fits your wagering style.

If you have sufficient historical details then you can evaluate which of the horses for the day may have a possible advantage (or for that matter, a disadvantage) under these conditions. We have pulled together some information which should be helpful in your assessment.

It is obviously from the statistics that the senior pilots are more qualified and have a higher win-strike under both normal and rain-affected circumstances (see chart below). Likewise, horses that have positive results on rain-affected going have a better chance of repeating their success. Check out this PDF for Off-track Form for horses. CLICK HERE.

Stats are based on Performance Under Off-Track Conditions :

In Hong Kong horses with odds of 10:1 or greater win, on average, 3 out of every 10 races. This might seem high but when you consider the number of horses in a given race which have those odds, the chance of being right about the long-shot that you choose, becomes much harder. In fact, the Win percentage of horses with long-odds is only about 3%. Once again, the elimination factor is critical when you are choosing a long-shot.

Apart from “inside information” which only a few are privy, the best method for eliminating those horses that truly have low or no chances of winning, is to analyze the history of long shots at HK and identify factors that have produced these winners in the past.

Trainers continue to be key to solving this puzzle, along with other horse factors such as racing recency, class change, number of starts and weight carried. Going through these variables should provide you with the ability to narrow the field down to those with better-than-average chances and ideally enable you to find more winning long-shots!

In tonight’s card the following are 2 possible long-shots that meet some of the criteria identified above:

R#6 H#7 . . . CONFUCIUS CLASSIC : 10 to 1 in the overnights

R#7 H#7 . . . WINE WIN : 17 to 1 in the overnights

Good Racing Luck !

Favorites:
Only 22% of favorites have won this term on the AWT compared to 29% on the Turf. This illustrates just how difficult these races are. Stables and Jockeys * with the best percentage record with favorites on this surface are :
Trainers: K W Lui – A T Millard and Y S Tsui
Jockey: J Lloyd

TRAINERS
There are number of Stables that have good records with Charges that perform well on the AWT Surface. Best percentage Win records for this season are :

JOCKEYS *

* Those Jockeys with Scheduled rides tonight.

BARRIER DRAWS (Based on 1st, 2nd and 3rd finishes)

1200M (31 Races)
Best : 2-3-4-12 Worst :1-5-10

1650M (19 Races)
Best : 3-7 Worst : 2-5-6-13

1800M (4 Races)
Bes t: 1 to 5 Wors t: 6 to 14

SUMMARY :
Based on the above statistic the following Charges are worth consideration:

Favorites : (By Stables, based on Overnight Odds)
Race #3 Horse #9 > LOADS OF JOY
Race #6 Horse #4 > MY WHISKY
Race #7 Horse #7 > TRUE INTELLIGENCE **

** EK’s Best Bet – Express View Pro’s Premium Version

Trainer/Jockey/Draw Combinations :
Race #4 Horse #3 TREMENDOUS PLUS (12 to 1 Overnight)

It is commonly understood, and a fact, that if you were to bet the favorite every time, while you will receive a high percentage of winning bets, in the end you will be out of pocket, as the favorites do not pay enough to cover your total outlay of bets. And while we all like winners, we want to be profitable!

However, in Hong Kong, with some work and racing data, it is possible for you to end-up with a flat-bet profit just betting the favorites. What makes this possible in Hong Kong (& in a few other jurisdictions) is that many of the handicapping variables that statistically identify the most logical “winners” are not factors in Hong Kong (example : variety of jockeys, shippers, etc.). This absence of numerous variables gives you an advantage in eliminating horses that will most likely not win. Therefore, you can better determine if the popular choice is in fact a False Favourite.

The primary handicapping factors that I use to include (or eliminate) the favorite are geared to Class, Days Since Raced, Jockeys and Trainers. With a robust database, you are quickly and easily able to see identify those factors that have a high win strike-rate. Then, by wagering only on those favorites which meet your positive criteria, you will end-up with a positive flat bet profit over time.

It should be noted that using this strategy as described above you will be playing a small percentage of the card. But you can also use this approach to press with other wagers when you have determined there is a False Favourite in the race.

As always, Racing Data can be easily purchased from The Hong Kong Racing Journal : www.horseracing.com.hk/data.htm

Database note : with a variety of Hong Kong Racing Data elements (sophisticated items in addition to standard factors are available, just ask!), you can design a database or application to your specific needs.